The custom of predicting hope weather conditions based on animals dates back at least a thousand years, but using the weather on February 2nd to forecast a longer winter is more recent than that.
It was during the Dark Ages in Europe that this extensive fallacy took hold. Peasants and nobles alike noticed a strong connection between a bright, sunny, medieval Candlemas Day and long, dreary winter weather extending into the next 6 weeks:
If Candlemas be fair and bright, Winter has another flight.
If Candlemas brings clouds and rain, Winter will not come again.
In Germany, meanwhile, it was the hedgehog that played a starring role in a similar belief.
Farmers waited for late winter to watch the hibernating animal to come out of his burrow. If the hedgehog saw his outline on a bright, sunlit day he quickly returned to hibernate...and thus put the official stamp on a prediction of six more weeks of winter for German farmers.
German settlers later brought the old belief with them to Pennsylvania, replacing the hedgehog with the more common American groundhog,
And the rest, as they say, is Groundhog Day history.
In popular culture, the 1993 film comedy Groundhog Day was a major hit for star Bill Murray, bringing Punxsutawney Phil's popularity to new heights.
Today, Pennsylvania-born groundhog Punxsutawney Phil is a minor celebrity. This sleepy groundhog may be the most famous weather forecaster in the USA. Each year, the world's paparazzi hold vigil in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2 as America waits with frosted breath for Phil to emerge.
So... can we count on an early spring in 2008? Or will there be six more weeks of winter?
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